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DescriptionULTIMATE WEATHER ANALYSIS
In this culminating graded activity, you will demonstrate your ability to apply and synthesize weather
concepts and your written communication skills. The activity will also require critical thinking,
attention to detail, and self-reflection.
Using the weather products, flight plan scenario, and other information and resources provided,
along with your acquired knowledge and skills, you will analyze and interpret the given information to
identify the presence or possible development of specific weather phenomena and determine the
associated weather-related impacts and hazards to the planned flight.
This is a culminating activity and your goal is to “pull out all the stops” in applying weather concepts
and their applications to aviation covered not only in this module but for all previous modules of the
course also.
In part of the activity, you will also engage in some self-reflection on how your learning experiences
throughout the course factored into your ability to successfully complete this activity.
(Assignment)
Mock Scenario: Due to your outstanding reputation as a skilled member of an aviation weather
consulting team, you have been asked by a friend, who is an experienced general aviation
(Skybrary) pilot, to analyze the weather conditions and identify potential weather-related flight
impacts for their planned upcoming flight from Daytona Beach, Florida to Prescott, Arizona.
Using flight-specific information and weather products provided, you will identify already existing or
potentially developing weather phenomena at the departure and destination, and along the planned
flight route, and discuss the associated aviation-related hazards/impacts at the departure and
destination, and along the planned flight route due to the weather phenomena identified.
To complete the activity:

Carefully read the instructions and requirements.

Examine the Information section, which contains the flight-specific information and weather
products.
(Activity Instructions)
In this activity, you will be guided in analyzing the expected weather conditions and potential flight
impacts and hazards for a flight in a general aviation (Skybrary) aircraft. The flight is planned for a
mid-March day, going from Daytona Beach International Airport in Florida to Prescott Regional
Airport in Arizona, with a mid-way stopover to rest and refuel at Fort Worth International Airport.
You will be evaluating the weather and flight impacts and hazards for 1) the initial departure from
Daytona Beach, 2) along the flight route between Daytona and Prescott, and 3) the landing at the
final destination at Prescott, by analyzing and interpreting the weather products and information in
the Information section.
Image 1 of the Information section shows a US map with the departure, stopover, destination, and
flight route annotated. A cross-section of the topography along the flight route is also provided below
the map.

Daytona Beach International Airport (KDAB), elevation 33 feet, is located about 4 miles west
of the Atlantic Ocean on the east coast of Florida. Map Image of Daytona Beach
International Airport (Google Maps).

Prescott Regional Airport (KPRC), the elevation of 5,045 feet, is located in the Bradshaw
Mountains of North Central Arizona. Map Image of Prescott Regional Airport (Google Maps).
The planned departure time from Daytona Beach is 8:00 am local time (Eastern time zone). After
the estimated flight time for each leg of the trip, and the stopover time in Ft. Worth, the expected
landing time in Prescott is around 5:00 pm local time (Mountain time zone).
The planned cruising altitude is 18,000 feet. The departure, stopover location, destination, and flight
route are identified on the weather maps and imagery.
In completing the evaluations and summary of the weather and its impacts and hazards to the flight,
keep in mind the difference between weather and flight weather impacts and hazards. For example,
fog and low clouds describe weather, and the associated impacts of fog and low clouds are low
visibility and low cloud ceilings.
Please proceed to the Part I section.
(Part I)- Big Picture Evaluation of Expected Weather
First, you will evaluate the weather situation at the departure, along the flight route, and at the
destination, by analyzing and interpreting the weather products and information presented in the
tables and images of the Information section.
Write down the evaluations and calculations as specified in 1-3. You will use this information to
complete your activity submission.
1. For the departure location (KDAB) – Collectively analyze the US surface map with radar
image overlay* (Image 2), the US infrared satellite image* (Image 3), and the KDAB surface
weather valid for the planned departure (take-off) time (see Departure and Destination
Surface Weather Tables) to identify:
1. Specific surface weather features or patterns, such as high and low-pressure
systems, cold and warm fronts, the pressure gradient (tight or loose), and relative
wind speed (strong or weak) in the vicinity of KDAB.
2. Any fog or clouds in the vicinity of KDAB. Specify if the clouds are layered or
convective. If layered, specify if they are high or low-level clouds.
3. Precipitation (if present, specify intensity) or other significant weather in the vicinity
of KDAB.
4. The difference between the wind direction and runway orientation at KDAB
(determine by comparing the surface wind direction in the data table with runway
orientation from the airport Google Map image (link provided in the Activity
Instructions section).
5. For each item identified in A-D, state the specific map, image, and/or information
used to make the identification.
2. At flight level along the planned flight route (between KDAB and KPRC) – collectively
analyze the US surface map with radar image overlay* (Image 2), the US infrared satellite
image* (Image 3), and the 500 mb map* ** (Image 4) to describe:
1. The height pattern (troughs/ridges) and wind flow pattern (meridional or zonal) at
flight level along the route.
2. How the wind is changing at flight level along the route, stating the numerical
values of speed and stating in words the direction FROM which the wind is blowing.
3. Any clouds at flight level along the route. State whether 1) the clouds are layered or
convective, and 2) whether or not the aircraft is passing through clouds (determine
this by calculating the 500 mb (flight level) dew point depression using data in the
500 mb station models).
4. Any precipitation (and its intensity) at flight level along the route.
5. How the temperature is changing at flight level along the route, stating specific
values of temperature with appropriate units.
3. For the destination location (KPRC) – Collectively analyze the US surface map with radar
image overlay* (Image 2), the US infrared satellite image* (Image 3), and the KPRC surface
weather valid for the planned destination (landing) time of 5:00 pm local time (Mountain time
zone) (see Departure and Destination Surface Weather Tables) to identify:
1. Specific surface weather features or patterns, such as high and low-pressure
systems, cold and warm fronts, and the pressure gradient (tight or loose) and
associated wind speed (strong or weak) in the vicinity of KPRC.
2. Any fog or clouds in the vicinity of KPRC. Specify if the clouds are layered or
convective. If layered, specify if they are high or low-level clouds.
3. Precipitation (if present, specify intensity) or other significant weather in the vicinity
of KPRC.
4. Any differences between the wind direction and the runway orientation at KPRC
(determined by comparing wind direction with runway orientation from airport Google
Map image (link provided in the Activity Instructions section above).
5. For each item identified in A-D, state the specific map, image, and/or other
information used to make the identification.
*For simplicity, consider this information valid for the entire time frame of the planned flight from
Daytona Beach (KDAB) to Prescott (KPRC).
**Recall that the 500 mb map visualizes the weather conditions at the 500 mb pressure level, which
is approximately 18,000 feet above mean sea level (the stated flight level for this
scenario). Reference Module 6 Pressure and Wind Analysis.
Please proceed to the Part II section.
(Part II)- Evaluation of Potential Weather Impacts and Hazards
Next, you will evaluate the potential flight weather impacts and hazards based on your determination
of the weather conditions in Part I.
Write down the following evaluations as you will use this information to complete your activity
submission:
1. Based on your evaluation in Part I, determine, for both the departure (take-off) from
KDAB, and the destination (landing) at KPRC, if:
1. Low cloud ceiling and/or low visibility conditions are present. If so, state the
cause(s).
2. Low-level turbulence could be present. If so, state the cause(s).
3. Crosswinds could be present.
Justify each determination in A-C with evidence from the evaluation in Part I.
1. Based on your evaluation in Part I, at flight level along the flight route between KDAB
and KPRC:
1. identify locations* where crosswinds will be present.
2. discuss any potential impact of the along-route winds to the predicted flight time and
fuel requirements.
3. identify locations* where the potential of encountering convective turbulence, aircraft
icing, low visibility, or hail damage exists.
4. identify locations* where the potential for a “high to low” scenario exists, and
describe how this could impact the determination of the aircraft’s true altitude.
5. identify locations* where the potential of encountering mountain wave turbulence
exists (hint: analyze Image 1 of the Information section).
Justify each determination in A-E with evidence from the evaluation in Part I.
*Describe locations using an appropriately identifying geographic reference, e.g., “over Central
Texas”
Please proceed to the Submission Instructions and Requirements section.
(Submission Instructions and Requirements)For the activity submission, formulate, a four-paragraph document, where each paragraph of the
document meets the criteria specified and is presented in the following order:

Paragraph 1 (30 points): Formulate a complete yet concise summary of the evaluations and
calculations performed in 1-3 of Part I – Big Picture Evaluation of Expected Weather. The
summary should address all points as outlined in 1-3.

Paragraph 2 (30 points): Formulate a complete yet concise summary of the evaluations
performed in 1 and 2 of Part II – Evaluation of Potential Flight Weather Impacts and
Hazards. The summary should address all points as outlined in 1 and 2.

Paragraph 3 (15 points): Address the following “What if” critical thinking questions,
considering the typical local summer weather patterns for each location.
o
Suppose the flight was instead taking place in the middle of the summer (vs. the
spring).

What impacts and hazards could potentially exist for an afternoon take-off
from Daytona Beach in the summertime scenario?

For a return trip from Prescott to Daytona Beach, what impacts and hazards
could potentially exist for an afternoon take-off from Prescott in the
summertime scenario?

Paragraph 4 (15 points): Develop a few sentences of critical self-reflection on your
preparedness to complete this activity. While engaging in self-reflection, the objective is to
analyze things for what they are, not what you think they should be, with a perspective as if
you were watching an event from a distance. In reflecting on your preparedness to complete
the activity, consider the knowledge and skills you have acquired to this point in the course
(from readings, lessons, and activities) as well as any learning or experiences previous to
this course.
Additional Requirements:

Utilize mainly course resources – textbook, lessons, previously completed activities – to
formulate your document. If any outside sources are utilized, provide a list of those sources
at the bottom of your document.

Develop your document using your own words, without directly quoting or paraphrasing from
the course or outside resources. Any submission content determined by the instructor to be
inauthentic (material from outside sources presented as your own work) will not receive
credit and could prompt academic integrity violation procedures.

Use correct spelling and grammar.
Please proceed to the Information section.
(Information)- Departure and Destination Surface Weather Tables
The tables provide the surface weather conditions at the airfield.
KDAB (Daytona Beach International Airport, FL), elevation 33 feet
Surface Weather Valid for Planned Departure Time (8:00 am Local Time)
Temperature
54°F
Dew Point Temperature
53°F
Wind
Calm
Sky Cover
Overcast
Visibility
1/4 mile
Present Weather
Fog
Sea Level Pressure
1,021 mb
Destination:
KPRC (Prescott Regional Airport, AZ), elevation 5,045 feet
Surface Weather Valid for Planned Arrival Time (5:00 pm Local Time)
Temperature
34°F
Dew Point Temperature
31°F
Wind
South 15 knots gusts to 25 knots
Sky Cover
Overcast
Visibility
1.5 miles
Present Weather
Light Snow
Sea Level Pressure
1,018 mb
IMAGE 1
Google Earth map showing flight route, departure, destination, and stopover locations, and the
cross-section of topography between departure and destination.Google Earth.
IMAGE 2
US Surface map with radar imagery overlay from the Weather Prediction Center.This map visualizes
weather conditions at the surface. For simplicity, consider this information valid for the entire time
frame of the planned flight from Daytona Beach (KDAB) to Prescott (KPRC).
IMAGE 3
US infrared satellite imagery from the Aviation Weather Center (now archived). For simplicity,
consider this information valid for the entire time frame of the planned flight from Daytona Beach
(KDAB) to Prescott (KPRC).
IMAGE 4
US 500 mb map from the Storm Prediction Center. This map visualizes weather conditions at the
500 mb pressure level (approximately 18,000 feet above mean sea level). For simplicity, consider
this information valid for the entire time frame of the planned flight from Daytona Beach (KDAB) to
Prescott (KPRC).

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